Caro Ângelo


O Prof. Lorente acabou de responder aos Mattos e Silva. Rapidíssimo. Aqui vai o que eles me transmitiram
Anexo a resposta dele. Ele pegou nas perguntas do José Mattos e Silva e respondeu uma a uma. Coloquei em maisculas as respostas dele, para facilitar a leitura.
Afinal, sem se fazer nenhum curso de ADN, acaba-se por saber mais desse assunto que o GRANDE professor Ângelo.
Estas coisas não têm a ver com teoria mas com raciocínio.
Portanto, admitindo que não houve misturas de ossos e que os do irmão Diego são mesmo do irmão Diego e não de outrem, teremos as seguintes conclusões:
1 - Os supostos restos mortais de CC e do "irmão" Diego têm a mesma ancestralidade feminina, o que não implica que sejam filhos da mesma mãe. Não se pode concluir que tenham a mesma ancestralidade masculina, pelo que nada se pode concluir que sejam irmãos inteiros;
2 - Os supostos restos mortais de CC e do seu filho bastardo Hernando, têm a mesma ancestralidade masculina;
3 - Está tudo em aberto em relação à naturalidade de CC, embora estatisticamente haja maior probabilidade dele ser um "ibérico" do que um "italiano".
Tudo o que sejam outras conclusões são, necessariamente, abusivas.
Parece que os Mattos e Silva marcaram pontos e fizeram um brilharete!
Um abraço
Ricardo



---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Jose Antonio Lorente
Date: 2012/3/27
Subject: Re: ADN investigations on Cristobal Colon
To: José Matos e Silva


DEAR MR. MATOS E SILVA,
I'LL BRIEFLY ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS, I'M TRAVELLING RIGHT NOW.

> From this information we have the following doubts:
> 1 - Did you confirm that the remains of Colon (in the Sevilla Cathedral) and those from his supposed brother Diego had the same mitocondrial ADN? If the answer is yes this means they had the same mother or only that they had the same female origin? (For instance they could be sons of two sisters, instead of having the same mother?);
YES, YOU ARE RIGHT.

> Did you make any analisys of Y ADN between the two supposed brothers and they match which means they had the same male origin? They could be sons of two brothers instead of having the same father? So Colon and Diego are "complete" brothers (with the same father and mother) or could they have only one of the parents in common? In this last option they had the same mother or the same father?
SO FAR AND ACCORDING TO MTDNA WE ONLY KNOW THEY HAD A COMMON MOTHER OR 2 DIFFERENT MOTHERS MATERNALLY RELATED.

> 2 - Did you confirm throug the Y ADN that those remains of Colon have the same masculine origin of his son Hernando? It confirms that the two individuals analised are father and son or they can have, for instance, the same grandfather, being sons of two brothers?
AGAIN, ALL OPTIONS YOU MENTIONED ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES THAT, SO FAR WE HAVE VERY LIMITED DATA FROM THE Y CHROMOSOME, BUT POINTING A COMMON Y ANCESTOR.

> 3 - When you said "I really think that all these approaches are not scientifically reliable" you refer to all tests of points 1 and 2 of my present e-mail or only to the study of the country of Colon origin?
I MEAN THAT THER ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE, I'D SAY 99% OF THE PEOPLE WRITING ABOUT COLON (OR SIMILAR INTERNATIONAL WELL KNOWN, HISTORICAL CELEBRITIES) THAT ARE RAISING CONCLUSIONS WITHOUT KNOWING GENETICS AND ITS LIMITATIONS. THIS IS WHY I WANT TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL AND AS YOU MENTIONED, THIS IS TRUE WHEN TRYING TO FIND THE COUNTRY OF ORIGIN. ONLY DIRECT COMPARISONS WITH OTHER PEOPLE GENETICALLY RELATED ARE THE MOST VALUABLE ONES.

> 4 - In a paper in the "Human Genetics" magazine, signed by you and other researchers, there is a conclusion that "a positive identification would be much more likely for a Catalan than a Ligurian Columbus". This means that you think that the probability of Colon being born in Genoa is quite poor?

NOT AT ALL, AND THIS IS ALL RELATED TO STATISTICS, TO LIKELIHOOD. WE WANT TO MEAN THAT SINCE THE Y DATA FROM THE COLUMBUS FROM ITALY ARE VERY DIVERSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE COLOM FROM SPAIN, IT'D ME STATISTICALLY MORE ROBUST TO TIE COLON TO A CATALAN ORIGIN THAT TO AN ITALIAN ONE, BUT IT DOES NOT MEAN AT ALL THAT THE PROBABILITY OF COLON BEING BORN IN GENOA IS LOW OR POOR. WE CANNOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING AT ALL AND WE ARE NOT NEITHER PUSHING NOR DISCARDING ANY ORIGINS. WE JUST HOPE THAT SCIENCE CAN HELP TO SOLVE OR ADD DATA TO THIS MISTERY, BUT THERE ARE MANY SCIENTIFIC LIMITATIONS YET.

HOPE IT HELPS. YOURS,

JOSE A. LORENTE
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